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The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500. The green flag drops Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on FOX. Below, we analyze the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.
Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500: What you need to know
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, June 5 at 6:05 p.m. ET.
Penske Racing’s Brad Keselowski (+800) is the defending winner of this race, and he picked up checkers last season after starting from the 19th position.
The past three winners of the NASCAR Cup Series race in Atlanta have been in a Ford, with the three previous winners in a Chevrolet. A Toyota hasn’t been to Victory Lane in Atlanta since the AdvoCare 500 in 2013 when Kyle Busch (+650) raced to the win.Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott (+600) has drawn the pole position, as starting spots 1-12 were a random draw from charter teams in those positions in team owner points.The pole sitter hasn’t won in Atlanta in 18 Cup races dating back to Kasey Kahne
(now retired) when he won the Golden Corral 500 in his Dodge March 20, 2006.Four of the past six winners in Atlanta have started in position No. 10 or lower in the starting grid.Stewart-Haas Racing driver Kevin Harvick (+450) leads all active drivers with 1,197 laps led in Atlanta. The next closest competitor is Ganassi’s Kurt Busch (+1600) with 802.Who is going to win the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500?
While a pole sitter hasn’t hoisted the trophy in Atlanta since 2006, ELLIOTT (+600) is always a good choice. He has been running very consistently since the restart of the season and has been in contention for every race since the return.
Elliott leads all active drivers with a 10.5 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in four starts in Atlanta, posting a top-5 run and three top-10 finishes. He has never ended up lower than 19th at the track.
KURT BUSCH (+1600) has three wins under his belt in Atlanta, while turning in seven top-5 showings and 14 top-10 runs in 28 career starts. Plus, he has a strong 14.9 AFP along with those 802 laps led. Father Time isn’t catching up with the veteran – he turns 42 in August – especially as far as Atlanta in concerned, as he leads all drivers with a 6.9 AFP across the past 10 starts at the track. That includes finishes of fourth, seventh, eighth and third over the past four runs.
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KESELOWSKI (+800) is running with a lot of confidence, and is the defending champ of this race. He also won last week at Bristol for his second victory in the past three races. And remember, Ford has been to Victory Lane in each of the past three Atlanta runs, so …
Atlanta Motor Speedway prop bets
KURT BUSCH (-125) is almost a near certainty to finish INSIDE THE TOP 10, so play that. In addition, take the elder BUSCH (-115) over Jimmie Johnson in a head-to-head, best finishing position prop.
Another strong head-to-head play is ARIC ALMIROLA (-115) over Matt DiBenedetto. Almirola hasn’t exactly lit the track afire, but DiBenedetto just has never been able to figure the place out. In four Cup starts, DiBenedetto is 29th, 28th, 31st and 26th.
Atlanta Motor Speedway long-shot bets
Ol’ wily veteran MATT KENSETH (+6000) of Ganassi Racing is worth a roll of the dice here. He has never won in 29 tries in Atlanta, but has turned in 11 top 5s, 17 top 10s and he has led 363 laps in his career. He has an 11.93 AFP, best among all active drivers with at least five starts at the venerable, bumpy track.
If you’re looking for a REAL long shot to bet on, try DANIEL SUAREZ (+50000). He has three Cup starts under his belt in Atlanta, finishing 21st in his debut in 2017, 15th in 2018 and 10th in 2019. Of course, he is now in a more inferior machine, racing for Gaunt Brothers Racing in the No. 96 Toyota rather than his previous years with JGR and one season with SHR, thus the extremely long odds. But hey, it’s worth a $1 bet.
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The odds for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Atlanta are influenced heavily by what Kevin Harvick has done at the 1.5-mile oval in Hampton, Ga., throughout his career, especially recently. Our picks for Sunday’s race are impacted by the same trends.
Nobody in Sunday’s field has led more career laps at Atlanta in the Cup Series than Harvick (1,197 in 29 starts), and the winner of this race in 2018 is tied with Jimmie Johnson for the best career driver rating (100.5) at the track.
Combine those numbers with the fact that Harvick is the NASCAR Cup Series points leader in 2020 with a series-best five top-five finishes and eight top-10s, including one win, and it’s easy to see why sportsbooks consider the No. 4 Stewart-Haas racing team the favorite for Sunday’s race at Atlanta.
Odds To Win Nascar Championship
Below are the Vegas odds to win Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series at Atlanta, plus our top three picks of drivers who could end up taking the checkered flag.
NASCAR race odds to win at Atlanta
While Harvick tends to run well at Atlanta, so does Chase Elliott, who will start Sunday’s race from the pole based on the results of a random draw for starting positions.
Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, below are the complete odds to win Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Atlanta, starting with Harvick and Elliott.
Kyle Busch comes in with the third best odds to win Sunday’s race in part because his Joe Gibbs Racing team is finding the speed it was missing through the first few races of the season. However, based on career driver ratings, he isn’t even the best Atlanta racer in his own family.
Below are the top 10 career driver ratings at Atlanta among those in Sunday’s field:
As noted, Elliott will roll off first Sunday, which is generally helpful at Atlanta. Fourteen of the 113 Cup Series races at Atlanta saw the pole winner take the checkered flag.
For whatever reason, the most proficient starting position in the field at Atlanta is fifth, which has produced more wins (16) than any other starting position. Clint Bowyer has that starting spot for Sunday’s race.
Below is the breakdown of wins from varying starting positions in the history of Cup racing at Atlanta.
Odds To Win Nascar Today
The top 10 starters for Sunday’s race at Atlanta are as follows: 1. Chase Elliott, 2. Aric Almirola, 3. Joey Logano, 4. Kyle Busch, 5. Clint Bowyer, 6. Brad Keselowski, 7. Ryan Blaney, 8. Alex Bowman, 9. Kevin Harvick, 10. Denny Hamlin
NASCAR at Atlanta expert picks
1. Jimmie Johnson
Career stats at Atlanta:
The driver who has gone 104 Cup Series races without a victory has five career wins at Atlanta, the most of any driver in Sunday’s field. More importantly, Hendrick Motorsports has shown adequate speed this season, and Johnson himself has four top-10 finishes.
Given HMS’ speed and Johnson’s positive vibes at this particular track, his ranking 11th in the odds to win Sunday’s race is a solid value.
2. Kurt Busch
Career stats at Atlanta:
Busch loves this track, and given his numbers, we can’t blame him. The No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing team has been fast this season, as evidenced by its six top-10 finishes in nine races. Busch will start Sunday’s race 12th, plenty high enough for him to contend for his first win of the season.
3. Kevin Harvick
Career stats at Atlanta:
We have to go chalk with this last pick, because Harvick and his team are simply too good at Atlanta to leave off the list. (For what it’s worth, Brad Keselowski is another great pick at Atlanta, but we’re betting against the continuation of his hot streak.)
Harvick’s 14 career top-10 finishes at Atlanta include 11 in the last 13 races. He also has led an unmatched 960 laps in the last six Atlanta races alone, including 181 in his 2018 win and 292 of the 325 laps in his 2017 ninth-place run.
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